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07/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Dave Bush can beat his hometown team for the second time this season when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in the middle game of a three-game series at Miller Park.
The Brewers won Friday's opener in dramatic fashion, scoring a run in the eighth and ninth innings to tie the contest before claiming a 5-4 decision in 10 frames. Ryan Braun lined an opposite-field single over Ryan Church's head in right field to score Rickie Weeks with the game-winning run for Milwaukee.
Braun, who earlier in the game snapped out of an 0-for-19 slump, came up with runners on first and second and two outs in the 10th after Evan Meek (4-3) intentionally walked Prince Fielder. He then struck the game-winning hit to end Milwaukee's five-game slide, with Weeks scoring without a play at the plate.
Fielder added a solo homer and Corey Hart had a two-run blast in the win, which was credited to John Axford (4-1) after he struck out Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Doumit to strand a runner on third in the top of the 10th.
Doug Davis, in his first start since May 10, surrendered four runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings for Milwaukee. His counterpart, Paul Maholm, held the Brewers to two runs on three hits and a pair of walks in a seven-inning no-decision.
Andrew McCutchen went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI for the Pirates, losers of four straight overall. Lastings Milledge added two hits, including a solo homer.
Bush, a 30-year-old veteran of 178 major-league appearances, beat the Pirates on April 20 in Pittsburgh by allowing just three hits in seven scoreless innings. The win raised his career mark against Pittsburgh - where he was born in November of 1979 - to 4-4 in 13 appearances and lowered his earned run average against the Pirates to 4.40 in 73 2/3 innings.
More recently, Bush has gone two starts since his last win, an 8-3 downing of Seattle on June 25. He's since lost to Houston and gotten a no-decision against San Francisco while giving up just three runs in 10 hits in 12 innings.
Bush is 1-4 with a 4.47 over nine starts in Milwaukee this season.
For the Pirates, California-born right-hander Jeff Karstens makes his eighth career appearance against the Brewers while still seeking his first win.
An ex-New York Yankees farmhand, Karstens tossed 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball against Milwaukee in his initial appearance of 2010 and added two-thirds of an inning of scoreless relief in a subsequent matchup on May 20. He got no- decisions in both games and is 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA in 28 2/3 overall innings against the Brewers.
His last victory came June 19 in an interleague matchup with Cleveland. Since then, Karstens is 0-1 with a pair of no-decisions while giving up 23 hits and 11 runs in 17 1/3 innings. He's 0-3 in nine road games this season.
Milwaukee has won six of its nine matchups with the Pirates this season and is 29-9 against the Bucs since the start of the 2008 campaign.
<< Phils to send out Halladay against first-place Reds
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies have needed extra innings and
stirring late comebacks to win the first two matchups of their four-game
series with the Cincinnati Reds. With Roy Halladay set to pitch tonight, it
shouldn't be so diff
<< Giants try to bounce back in middle matchup with Nationals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A San Francisco Giants offense that had been putting up
runs in bunches lately was shut down by phenom Stephen Strasburg in Friday's
opener of a three-game series with the Washington Nationals. The unit will
attempt to reclai
<< White Sox vie to remain hot in second test with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - U.S. Cellular Field is the site of tonight's clash between
the Kansas City Royals and hometown Chicago White Sox, as the two teams
continue a three-game weekend set.
On the hill for Kansas City tonight will be Brian Bannis
<< Dodgers aim for third straight win over crumbling Cubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The Chicago Cubs started out their current West Coast trip
in fine fashion, but the club still hasn't been able to solve its longtime
problems at Dodger Stadium.
After dropping the first two tests of this four-game series
Lee set to make Texas debut against Orioles >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh of Friday's acquisition of star pitcher Cliff Lee,
the first-place Texas Rangers continue their four-game series against the
lowly Baltimore Orioles in Arlington tonight.
It appeared that the New York Yankees had a d
Marlins continue road trip with another test in Arizona >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former first-round draft pick Ian Kennedy tries again to
snap a nearly two-month free-fall when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the
Florida Marlins tonight in the third game of their four-game series at Chase
Field.
The tea
Angels aim to further bury struggling A's >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are
set to play the second contest of a three-game weekend series from the
Coliseum this evening.
Pitcher Scott Kazmir has fallen far short of expectations for the An
Serbia wins doubles to go up on Croatia in Davis Cup >>
Split, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Janko Tipsarevic and Nenad Zimonjic took
an easy doubles win Saturday to give Serbia an advantage over Croatia in the
best-of-five Davis Cup quarterfinal between the rival nations.
Tipsarevic and Zimo
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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