CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction

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07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding themselves in a division trying to find itself.

A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given the club some rare wiggle room.

Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success, proceed with caution.

It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the same one as past editions.

New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one that comes from behind and wins close games.

With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.

For the Argos, it's better than going south.

In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the 27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:

Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards), who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.

Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second meeting of the two teams.

Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should improve to 3-1.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.

Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this roster gets, the less the regular season matters.

The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.

That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den, having gone winless at BC since 2001.

Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the top.

Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:

Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the league's stingiest defense.

Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for the Lions to wake him up.

Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home stand beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.

Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a competitive division.

Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.

After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with the confidence of a playoff team.

Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.

For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.

Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68 percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.

Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year, has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114 yards.

Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton. Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets tougher.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move further away from the pack.

Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the contending team that many predicted in the preseason.

After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad, Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.

Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.

Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers' offense this week.

Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win for Hamilton.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Cassel Signs Contract

Kansas City, MO - Kansas City has not officially named Matt Cassel its starting quarterback, but there can be no doubt now.

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After praising his leadership and work ethic through spring workouts, the Chiefs announced Tuesday they had signed the 27-year-old Cassel to a multiyear contract. Terms were not disclosed, but he will almost certainly be one of the highest-paid members of the team.
"We are excited to be able to reach a long-term agreement for Matt Cassel to be a Kansas City Chief for many years to come," owner and board chairman Clark Hunt said in a statement. "His proven leadership on and off the field will be a tremendous asset to the organization."
Patriots made him their franchise player, meaning his salary for this season will be about $15 million.
New head coach Todd Haley, taking over for Herm Edwards after a 2-14 season, refused to name a starter at any position during offseason workouts. But it was obvious to everyone the team belonged to Cassel.
"I go out there each and every day with that focus that I'm the starter," Cassel said during a June minicamp. "Competition brings out the best in everybody."
The signing will come as welcome news to Cassel's new coaches and teammates. Amiable and hardworking, online football betting he appeared to win over everyone at minicamp.
"I think he's got some unique leadership qualities. I think his teammates like him and have respect for him. I think he's doing a pretty good job on the field, too," Haley said last month. "He's doing everything that I'm asking him, that our coaches are asking him to do. I don't have one single complaint how he's carrying himself."
After one workout, wide receiver Devard Darling declared Cassel "a breath of fresh air."
"He has a lot of swagger, a lot of confidence. It's good for us," said Darling. "We trust in him that he's going to go out there and lead us all the way."
nse to accommodate his specific abilities.
Trapped on the bench behind Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC and then unable to unseat Super Bowl MVP Brady at New England, Cassel seemed destined to be a backup all his life. As Brady was helped off the field last September, Cassel seized the opportunity he'd been waiting for since high school.
In his only sustained action since his teens, he hit 349 of 555 passes for 3,949 yards at New England. He had 23 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions as the Patriots, who had gone unbeaten through the regular season the year before, finished 11-5 and out of the playoffs.
Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli, who had been Bill Belichick's assistant in New England, engineered the trade after the Patriots became convinced that Brady would recover fully from his knee operation.
"Since Matt arrived in Kansas City, he has embraced the team and the community," Pioli said. "His work ethic, his ability and competitive presence is what we expect from our players."

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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