CFL Eastern Division: Rivalries are back after break

Football Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Labour Day approaches in Canada and, in the CFL, that means rivalries take over for the most-anticipated weekend of the regular season. The Toronto Argonauts and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are set to complete the home-and-home series they began in Week 8, where it was Steeltown that came away with a tight win over the Boatmen. Meanwhile, Montreal hosts the eighth-place BC Lions, and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers look to gain ground against prairie rival Saskatchewan Roughriders.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

The Argos have battled it out with the Ti-Cats on Labor Day every year since 1948. The tradition continues again this year, and despite having a better record, it's Toronto looking to prove something.

The Argos dropped a 16-12 decision at home to Hamilton two weeks ago, courtesy of 13 points allowed in the final quarter and receiving 10 penalties for 115 yards.

Simply put, Toronto gave the game away and is hungry to exact revenge.

Despite the loss, Toronto can ride the positive vibes of having two of its players named Players of the Month for August.

Cory Boyd was named August's best offensive player after amassing 386 total yards from scrimmage, highlighted by a 164-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 6.

Meanwhile, linebacker Kevin Eiban was named Top Canadian. He currently leads the league with 53 tackles this season.

Offensive key to the next game (Hamilton Tiger-Cats): Boyd can't do it all, but he is the most important piece of the Argos offense. Behind him, Cleo Lemon needs to throw at a higher percentage - he connected on just 18-of-31 pass attempts in Week 8.

Defensive key to the next game: Discipline comes first in this game as Toronto would have won easily had it not been for penalties. Aside from that, the defensive line needs to tighten up a little bit and not allow DeAndra Cobb to approach the century mark in rushing yards again.

Look ahead: Toronto plays the three worst teams in the league over the next few weeks, and since two are home games, it's essential the Argos win them if they want to keep up with Montreal in the East.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

It's been a tough go for the Ti-Cats this season, but after two consecutive wins, they're right back in the thick of things. Hamilton is just one game back of Toronto, making the Labour Day matchup a true classic in the making.

DeAndra Cobb played a huge part, having his best game of the season in Week 8 when he ran for 99 yards and scoring the game-winning touchdown in the dying minutes.

Though the Ti-Cats snatched victory from their Ontario rivals, it was not a great showing by any stretch of the imagination. Hamilton scored just three points in the first three quarters before finding the will to win in the final frame.

Hamilton will look to iron out its lackluster play from two weeks ago and come out of the gates strong at home in Week 10.

Offensive key to the next game (Toronto Argonauts): Cobb is hitting his stride now and may be the difference again this time around. However, receiver Arland Bruce is the key piece in the puzzle as limiting Toronto to just 12 points two weeks in a row is highly unlikely. Bruce will need to step up and improve on his 68-yard performance in his last game.

Defensive key to the next game: The defensive key against Toronto is the same for every team - stop Cory Boyd. Limiting Boyd to just 86 yards two weeks ago is surprisingly great defensive work.

Look ahead: Hamilton plays two top teams in Montreal and Saskatchewan over the next three weeks, and though both are at home, it will be hard for the Ti-Cats to continue to climb their way up the standings.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

The storyline of what would have likely been a convincing Montreal win over BC in Week 10 has instead become about the injury to the Als' most important player, and how the Lions can take advantage.

Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is out and third-stringer Chris Leak is in, a replacement that has to have the last-place Lions gnashing their teeth for a chance to pick up a rare win.

Regardless of the injury, Montreal has so many weapons that it is still likely to win. This game will go a long way in showcasing what the Als can do without their best player.

Offensive key to the next game (BC Lions): While Leak is filling some big shoes, running back Avon Cobourne is likely to pick up the load. A tough task for Cobourne considering he's returning from an ankle injury, which caused him to miss the Als' last game.

Defensive key to the next game: As bad as the Lions defense has been, simply outscoring BC is the best option for the Als. However, if the Alouettes want a truly comfortable win, then clogging up lanes around the line of scrimmage is the best bet. Force Printers to go scramble and go deep, and turnovers are more than likely to happen.

Look ahead: Two of the next three weeks are against East opponents, sandwiched around a trip out west to face Edmonton. The Als are not in the clear yet for best in the East, and therefore must not let up against weaker division opponents.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

A 116-yard performance from running back Fred Reid did little for Winnipeg in its last matchup, a 39-17 loss to Montreal in Week 8.

It was Reid's best game of the season but, if anything, it showcased Winnipeg's need for a more consistent passing game.

Steven Jyles has not been able to step up for injured quarterback Buck Pierce, as the reeling Blue Bombers have now lost four in a row.

Fortunately, they will be facing another team that has lost its footing recently in the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Offensive key to the next game (Saskatchewan Roughriders): Quite simply, Jyles needs to play better, as 129 yards passing is not good enough in any league. That's the number Jyles finished with two weeks ago against Montreal.

Defensive key to the next game: Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant has struggled recently, and his team is suffering as a result. Winnipeg should follow the formula of Saskatchewan's recent opponents and force Durant to make mistakes and cause turnovers. Winnipeg needs to win the battle of possession to have a chance, and this is the best way to do it.

Look ahead: Winnipeg plays nothing but playoff contenders for the next three weeks after Saskatchewan. The postseason is getting to be a harder goal to achieve each and every week for the Bombers. This stretch may prove whether or not the dream is for real.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.