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09/14/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After Saturday's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond -- the final race of the regular season -- the 12-driver field for the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" has been determined. The 2009 Chase features your usual cast of title contenders such as Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon, and a class of newcomers featuring Juan Pablo Montoya and Brian Vickers. But no one stands out as a clear-cut favorite to win this year's Sprint Cup Series championship.
JOHNSON'S BID FOR A RECORD FOURTH STRAIGHT TITLE
Johnson enters the final 10 races of the season as the most experienced Chase contender. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has made the field every year since the playoff format began five years ago. In 2007 and '08, Johnson went on a late-summer surge by winning the last two races before the Chase began. That wasn't the case this year, as he finished 36th at Atlanta and 11th at Richmond.
Heading into New Hampshire next weekend, Johnson will begin his quest for a record fourth consecutive Cup championship in the third seed.
"I think it's anybody's championship right now," Johnson said. "I think it's really tough to really give this to anybody and really pick a favorite at this point. We just need to buckle down, put in ten good ones and work really hard."
Last year, Johnson tied Cale Yarborough's 30-year-old record of three titles in a row. Johnson and Matt Kenseth were the only drivers to qualify for the Chase each season, but Kenseth failed to make it this year after finishing 25th at Richmond. He ended up 38 points behind 12th-place Vickers.
COMEBACK CHASERS
Mark Martin and Ryan Newman made the Chase by overcoming a sluggish start to the season. Martin finished outside the top-30 in three of the first four races this year and held the 35th spot in points after the spring event at Atlanta. The 50-year-old driver staged a remarkable comeback by scoring four victories, which earned him the top-seed.
"I'm a really intense person," Martin said. "I'm really competitive, and I will give every ounce that I have at it just like I do every time. We'll see how it turns out. I'm proud to be driving for this race team. [Crew chief] Alan Gustafson is the key to all of the success I've had this year."
Martin's fourth-place finish at Richmond secured him a playoff spot for the fourth time in his career. He ran a partial schedule in the series from 2007-08. Martin, in his first season with Hendrick, has been running well lately, as he gears up for what is perhaps his best shot at winning the title for the first time.
Kyle Busch, who also has four wins this season, had an opportunity to share the first seed with Martin, but Busch came up eight points short of making the Chase.
Newman endured a rough early season as well. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver wrecked twice and blew an engine during Speedweeks at Daytona. He finished 36th in the Daytona 500, using a backup car intended for the following event at California. Newman sat 32nd in points after Atlanta in March, but gained enough momentum from there to put him in the Chase for the fourth time.
DRIVER/OWNER CHAMPIONSHIP?
Tony Stewart's remarkable first year as driver and owner continues with the two-time Cup champion beginning the Chase in the second seed. Stewart, with three wins this year, ended the regular season with a 179-point lead, but now finds himself 10 markers behind Martin.
"It's better than 12th," Stewart said. "The system I think is a good system. It's not devastating to leave [Richmond] and be second in the points after leading for so long. We all knew what the system is going in. It's a fair system."
Stewart has struggled lately, finishing outside the top-10 in each race since winning in early August at Watkins Glen.
NEWCOMERS
Juan Pablo Montoya and Brian Vickers, unlikely Chase contenders at the start of the season, made the playoffs for the first time.
Montoya, in his third Cup year, has been one of the most consistent drivers lately, despite no wins so far for the season. Four of the final 10 races this year will be held on 1.5-mile tracks, and that could work in favor for Montoya, who recently has excelled on the intermediate tracks.
"We made it, we were good enough to be there and we showed everybody we had the potential," Montoya said. "At this point, I think we have got a car fast enough to go far."
Ten races ago, Vickers held the 17th spot in the rankings and trailed then 12th-place Montoya by 123 points. A victory last month at Michigan helped Vickers gain enough steam to squeak into the Chase.
"We have done it for the past ten weeks, so there's no reason we can't do it for the next ten weeks," Vickers said.
Vickers has been one of the most improved drivers in the series since he joined Red Bull Racing in its first season of Cup competition in 2007. Two years ago, Vickers was struggling to qualify for a race. Now he's battling for a championship.
CHASE VETERANS
Carl Edwards was voted by the media as the pre-season favorite to win this year's title, but Edwards surprisingly has yet to win a race this year after leading the series with nine victories in 2008. The Roush Fenway Racing driver finished second in last year's Chase, 69 points behind champion Johnson.
"This season is so much different than last season," Edwards said. "Right now, we have struggled a little bit as a group, Roush Fenway, so I feel like this is our opportunity to only be a few points behind the leader, kind of gather all of our energy and all of the things we have been working on and head into these last ten races full force."
Jeff Gordon is a four-time series champion, but has not won a title since the Chase format began in 2004. In past seasons, Gordon has not been consistent throughout the playoffs, and this year will probably be no different.
Denny Hamlin is coming off a huge win at Richmond, and it could serve as a springboard for his championship bid. Hamlin has been in the Chase each of his first four Cup seasons. If he continues to run strong, he just might be there fighting for the title in the season-finale at Homestead.
Hamlin, who holds the fourth seed, is the only Joe Gibbs Racing driver in this year's Chase.
After winning two races this season -- Sonoma and Atlanta -- Kasey Kahne put Richard Petty Motorsports in the playoffs. Kahne has rebounded nicely since finishing 14th and 19th in points the last two years. He will begin the Chase in the fifth spot.
Kurt Busch also improved significantly this season after an 18th-place finish in points last year. Busch's quest for a second title could be hampered with team distractions. Last Friday, Busch revealed that his crew chief Pat Tryson will leave Penske Racing at season's end. Tryson will serve as Martin Truex Jr.'s crew chief at Michael Waltrip Racing next year.
Greg Biffle hung on to make it in the Chase for the second straight year, but Biffle could start off the playoffs the same way he did last year, winning at New Hampshire and Dover. He is winless so far this season, but he also began the '08 Chase with no victories to his credit. Biffle finished third in points last season.
This year's Chase should be as close and exciting as the battle to make the playoffs has been in the last 10 races. Any one of the drivers in the field could make things quite interesting during the next couple of months.
After New Hampshire, the Chase moves on to Dover, then Kansas, California, Charlotte, Martinsville, Talladega, Texas, Phoenix and wraps up November 22 at Homestead.
<< Cunningham earns MLS record 12th Player of Week award
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas forward Jeff Cunningham was voted
Major League Soccer's Player of the Week for Week 26, it was announced on
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Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Blake Griffin, the No. 1 overall pick in
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<< MSU's Pendland heads players of the week
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Pendland, Grambling defensive end Christian Anthony, Montana cornerback
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named The Sports N
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Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher
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a dislocated wrist Monday.
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With McNabb hurting, Eagles sign QB Garcia >>
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Golf Course Review - The Golf Club at Lansdowne >>
Lansdowne, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS AND STATS: Course Architect: Robert
Trent Jones Jr (1991), Redesign (2003-04). Year Opened: Summer, 1991.
Location: Lansdowne, Virginia. Slope: 145. Rating: 74.7. Par: 72. Yardage:
7,063.
Hole-by-Hole
Tigers P Rodney has suspension reduced >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball reduced the suspension
of Detroit Tigers pitcher Fernando Rodney from three games to two on Monday
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Braves' Vazquez named NL Player of the Week >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta Braves pitcher Javier Vazquez has been
named the National League Player of the Week for the period ending September
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Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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