Padres rally past Dodgers; Ramirez homers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everth Cabrera went 2-for-4 with three runs batted in, as the San Diego Padres used late rallies to down Los Angeles, 7-4, in the middle installment of a three-game series.

Cabrera, David Eckstein and Adrian Gonzalez -- the Padres' top three hitters -- combined to go 6-for-14 with six runs batted in, helping San Diego snap a three-game losing streak.

Padres starter Josh Geer allowed two runs over 6 1/3 innings, while Greg Burke (1-0) took the win after getting the final two outs of the seventh. San Diego scored three runs in both the seventh and eighth innings to take the victory.

Manny Ramirez hit his first home run since returning from his 50-game suspension Friday, when he went 0-for-3 with a walk. The solo shot was the 534th of his career, tying him with Jimmie Foxx for 16th on the career list, but it wasn't enough to help the Dodgers win for the third consecutive game.

After LA starter Randy Wolf gave up one run in six innings, in which he struck out eight, Ronald Belisario (1-3) gave up three runs in the seventh while recording one out. Ramon Troncoso allowed three more runs -- all unearned -- after replacing Belisario.

In a 1-1 game, the Dodgers took the lead in the top of the seventh when Casey Blake scored on Burke's wild pitch.

But the Padres went in front in the home half, which Eliezer Alfonzo began with a walk. Tony Gwynn, Jr. singled to put runners at the corners before Belisario hit Kyle Blanks. Cabrera then smacked a two-run single to right, and Eckstein bunted into a fielder's choice. Gonzalez singled home Cabrera to make it a 4-2 game and chase Belisario. Troncoso came in and got out of the jam.

The Dodgers got a run back in the eighth on Andre Ethier's run-scoring groundout, but San Diego again scored three in the home half. After Alfonzo singled with one away, Gwynn reached on an error by second baseman Juan Castro.

Heath Bell bunted the runners over for Cabrera, whose infield single plated Alfonzo. Gwynn scored on Blake's throwing error, and Cabrera went to third, then scored on Eckstein's single to make it 7-3.

Matt Kemp's RBI single off Bell in the ninth got the Dodgers within three, but the Padres closer kept LA off the scoreboard from there to notch his 23rd save. Bell tossed the final 1 2/3 innings for San Diego.

Ramirez's homer to left in the first inning made it a 1-0 game until Eckstein's RBI single in the third tied the contest.

Game Notes

Alfonzo replaced starting Padres catcher Henry Blanco, who left the game after two innings with a leg injury...The Padres were 5-for-10 with runners in scoring position, while LA was 1-for-7.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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